Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70
KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
P ABREOJOS 34 1 9(10) 10(20) 2(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23)
P ABREOJOS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LA PAZ 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LA PAZ 50 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
LA PAZ 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LORETO 34 31 21(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
LORETO 50 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
HUATABAMPO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 253N 1116W 34 72 8(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
12 253N 1116W 50 32 5(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38)
12 253N 1116W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 264N 1127W 34 4 27(31) 6(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
24 264N 1127W 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
24 264N 1127W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 275N 1138W 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) 2(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
36 275N 1138W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
36 275N 1138W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
48 285N 1150W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15)
48 285N 1150W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
48 285N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 295N 1170W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
72 295N 1170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 295N 1170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
96 295N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
96 295N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
96 295N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55 40 30 25 20 20 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
NNNN
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