Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90
KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 13(27) 2(29) X(29)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 10 66(76) 10(86) 2(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 1 35(36) 17(53) 3(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 14(14) 14(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 11 67(78) 11(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 1 40(41) 15(56) 4(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 17(17) 15(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
LA PAZ 34 2 39(41) 28(69) 8(77) 3(80) X(80) X(80)
LA PAZ 50 X 7( 7) 22(29) 9(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
LA PAZ 64 X 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
LORETO 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 14(29) 6(35) 1(36) X(36)
LORETO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18)
LOS MOCHIS 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 5(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 2 24(26) 16(42) 4(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49)
CULICAN 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 14 8(22) 3(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
SAN BLAS 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
P VALLARTA 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 218N 1080W 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99)
12 218N 1080W 50 74 11(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
12 218N 1080W 64 38 19(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
24 228N 1094W 34 27 59(86) 5(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
24 228N 1094W 50 2 50(52) 10(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
24 228N 1094W 64 1 25(26) 10(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
36 235N 1107W 34 2 43(45) 28(73) 8(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83)
36 235N 1107W 50 X 11(11) 24(35) 8(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46)
36 235N 1107W 64 X 4( 4) 14(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
48 241N 1122W 34 1 8( 9) 29(38) 19(57) 10(67) 1(68) X(68)
48 241N 1122W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34)
48 241N 1122W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16)
72 247N 1150W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 21(39) 6(45) 1(46)
72 247N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15)
72 247N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
96 250N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 2(18)
96 250N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
96 250N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 250N 1230W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
120 250N 1230W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 250N 1230W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95 95 90 85 65 55 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
NNNN
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