Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115
KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 11(27) 1(28)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 30(58) 18(76) 1(77) 1(78)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 14(46) 1(47) 1(48)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 10(28) 1(29) X(29)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 29(59) 19(78) 1(79) 1(80)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 14(48) 1(49) 1(50)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30)
LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 28(40) 26(66) 4(70) X(70)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 21(36) 1(37) 1(38)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 1(19) 1(20)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) 7(36) X(36)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 1(20)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 14(30) 1(31) X(31)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 22(35) 16(51) 2(53) 1(54)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10)
MAZATLAN 34 1 11(12) 26(38) 8(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51)
MAZATLAN 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 4 44(48) 10(58) 2(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62)
SAN BLAS 50 X 12(12) 7(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
SAN BLAS 64 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 34 26 53(79) 3(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84)
P VALLARTA 50 2 39(41) 4(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
P VALLARTA 64 X 19(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 87 9(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 56 25(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 29 33(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
MANZANILLO 34 90 4(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
MANZANILLO 50 61 13(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
MANZANILLO 64 30 14(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
L CARDENAS 50 39 X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 63(66) 17(83) 3(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 33(33) 22(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 14(14) 22(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 186N 1047W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 186N 1047W 50 84 7(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
12 186N 1047W 64 68 11(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
24 204N 1065W 34 12 73(85) 7(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93)
24 204N 1065W 50 1 61(62) 10(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
24 204N 1065W 64 X 43(43) 12(55) X(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56)
36 218N 1079W 34 2 31(33) 42(75) 10(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88)
36 218N 1079W 50 X 9( 9) 40(49) 12(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65)
36 218N 1079W 64 X 3( 3) 29(32) 10(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45)
48 228N 1095W 34 X 5( 5) 31(36) 28(64) 14(78) 2(80) X(80)
48 228N 1095W 50 X X( X) 14(14) 24(38) 12(50) 1(51) X(51)
48 228N 1095W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 9(32) X(32) X(32)
72 240N 1125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 33(49) 10(59) 1(60)
72 240N 1125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28) X(28)
72 240N 1125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16)
96 245N 1155W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 19(36) 3(39)
96 245N 1155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13)
96 245N 1155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
120 245N 1190W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15)
120 245N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
120 245N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 115 125 125 120 105 90 70
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
NNNN
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