Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 11(44) 3(47)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 1(17)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 10(40) 3(43)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) 3(30)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 2(17)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 3(16) 1(17)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 2(25) X(25)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) 10(40) 2(42) X(42)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 31(34) 21(55) 7(62) X(62) 1(63)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12)
MANZANILLO 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 16(52) 5(57) X(57) 1(58)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
L CARDENAS 34 3 32(35) 13(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
L CARDENAS 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
L CARDENAS 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 7 26(33) 5(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ACAPULCO 34 19 6(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27)
P MALDONADO 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 6(39) 1(40)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 20(40) 2(42) 1(43)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) 1(14)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 150N 1011W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 150N 1011W 50 84 8(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
12 150N 1011W 64 52 16(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
24 160N 1030W 34 19 70(89) 6(95) X(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96)
24 160N 1030W 50 2 60(62) 11(73) 1(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75)
24 160N 1030W 64 X 36(36) 12(48) 1(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50)
36 173N 1048W 34 1 26(27) 51(78) 10(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90)
36 173N 1048W 50 X 4( 4) 43(47) 13(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63)
36 173N 1048W 64 X 1( 1) 25(26) 11(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39)
48 188N 1068W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 40(65) 15(80) 1(81) X(81)
48 188N 1068W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 15(52) 1(53) 1(54)
48 188N 1068W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28)
72 210N 1105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 44(50) 11(61) 2(63)
72 210N 1105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 7(29) 1(30)
72 210N 1105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16)
96 220N 1130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 20(40) 5(45)
96 220N 1130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 3(17)
96 220N 1130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
120 220N 1160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 8(24)
120 220N 1160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
120 220N 1160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 115 120 120 115 110 100 90
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
NNNN
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