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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA                                                
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2006                                            
                   
...CORRECTED FOR AWIPS BIN NUMBER IN FIRST LINE ABOVE...
                                                 
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   2(19)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   2(17)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   3(22)   X(22)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  29(34)   2(36)   X(36)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  25(31)   1(32)   1(33)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)  14(35)   X(35)   X(35)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   9(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   3( 3)  12(15)   7(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   6( 6)   8(14)   3(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
P ANGEL        34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HUATULCO       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  18(30)   1(31)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   6(22)   1(23)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 136N  973W 34 45  20(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 12 136N  973W 50  6   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 12 136N  973W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 141N  991W 34  2  51(53)  14(67)   3(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 24 141N  991W 50  X  13(13)   9(22)   1(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 24 141N  991W 64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 147N 1009W 34  X  12(12)  40(52)  13(65)   4(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 36 147N 1009W 50  X   1( 1)  17(18)   9(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 36 147N 1009W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 159N 1028W 34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  34(50)  16(66)   1(67)   X(67)
 48 159N 1028W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  10(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 48 159N 1028W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 190N 1080W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  38(39)  12(51)   X(51)
 72 190N 1080W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   1(20)
 72 190N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 210N 1120W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  20(26)   3(29)
 96 210N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)
 96 210N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
120 220N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)
120 220N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
120 220N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     50      60      70      80      70      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC