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Hurricane JOHN (Text)

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HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
 
...JOHN LASHING THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...CENTER NEARING LA PAZ...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA....AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST.  THIS POSITION
IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
JOHN REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL
MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...23.8 N...109.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
 
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