ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 500 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...155 KM... SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...19.0 N...105.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC