Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
0900 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO RECOMMENDED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS RECOMMENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARDTO MULEGE.
  
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 108.8W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 108.8W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 108.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 110.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.8N 112.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.4N 114.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.3N 116.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 26.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 108.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
 
 
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