Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES.  A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE
ISLAS MARIAS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTHWARD TO SAN EVERISTO ON THE EAST COAST...AND NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD
ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.0W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.0W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.5N 110.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 107.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
 
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