Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF MANZANILLO.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS
MARIAS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.7N 107.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 108.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.8N 110.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.3N 111.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 106.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
 
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