Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR ISLAS MARIAS.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAS SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 104.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.0N 106.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.4N 110.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 105.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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