Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.  A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
WARNING EAST OF ACAPULCO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.3W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  25SE  10SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  25SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.3W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 101.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 103.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 24.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 102.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
 
 
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