Hurricane JOHN

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS
DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA
WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  99.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  99.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  99.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.0N 101.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.3N 104.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  99.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
 
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