Hurricane JOHN

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
 
AT 8AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO
LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 8AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO
MANZANILLO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF ACAPULCO
EASTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA...AND FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  99.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  99.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  98.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.8N 100.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.7N 104.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.2N 106.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  99.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
 
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