ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...IF IN FACT A CENTER STILL EXISTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2043Z AMSRE REVEALED A WEAK SPIRAL RAIN BAND OUTLINING A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION ABOUT 50 MI NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO...WHICH IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF WHERE JOHN SHOULD BE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED 6 HOUR MOTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE. BEST GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 330/6...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTRAPOLATED DATA. A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE LOW- TO MID TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER MEXICO...WITH ALL INDICATING DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE EAST BEYOND 24 HOURS TO MAINTAIN A MOTION PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF MID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS REMAIN A THREAT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 28.2N 113.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 29.0N 113.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 05/0000Z 29.7N 114.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/1200Z 30.7N 115.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC