Tropical Depression JOHN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...IF IN FACT A CENTER
STILL EXISTS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2043Z AMSRE REVEALED A WEAK
SPIRAL RAIN BAND OUTLINING A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION ABOUT 50 MI
NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO...WHICH IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
WHERE JOHN SHOULD BE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED 6 HOUR MOTION. 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE.

BEST GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 330/6...BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXTRAPOLATED DATA.  A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE LOW- TO MID TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER
MEXICO...WITH ALL INDICATING DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE EAST BEYOND 24
HOURS TO MAINTAIN A MOTION PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF
MID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS REMAIN A THREAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 28.2N 113.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 29.0N 113.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 29.7N 114.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 30.7N 115.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
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