ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM LOS CABOS AND GUASAVE INDICATE THAT THE 10-12 N MI WIDE EYE OF JOHN MADE LANDFALL NEAR 02Z OVER CABO DEL ESTE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION...BUT NOT YET ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY DROPPING THE MAXIMUM WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 95 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY IS THAT JOHN HAS LOST ITS CIRCULAR APPEARANCE WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IF SHEAR IS OCCURRING. SINCE NO AVAILABLE DATA SHOWS SHEAR...THE REASON FOR THIS APPEARANCE IS UNKNOWN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8. JOHN IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF JOHN...AND THUS ARE CALLING FOR THE STORM TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NOGAPS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT JUMPS TO THE RIGHT...AND ONLY THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF STILL TAKE JOHN WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED NOTABLY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR. SHOULD THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF JOHN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR LAND INTERACTION TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY. WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF INFLOW COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME IS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK. SHOULD THE CYCLONE STAY OVER OR CLOSE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SLOWER DURING THE POST-36 HR PERIOD THAN SHOWN HERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER JOHN WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THAT REGION EVEN IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DOES NOT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 23.4N 109.6W 95 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 24.4N 110.1W 85 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 25.5N 110.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 26.7N 111.8W 55 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.0W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC