ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOHN IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON MISSION EARLIER TODAY WERE 102 KT AT 700 MB... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 92 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER... AFTER THE RECON LEFT... JOHN FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AS INDICATED BY CABO SAN LUCAS RADAR. THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY RECOVERED A LITTLE FROM THE TEMPORARY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT... AND THE WINDS WILL BE NUDGED DOWN ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL THIS EVENING. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION SEEN EARLIER HAS CONTINUED... NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 335/7. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE SIX HOURS AGO. THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET ARE INDICATING THAT JOHN WILL FIND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION. THE MINORITY SOLUTION SUGGESTS A LEFTWARD TURN AFTER INTERACTION WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MOVED EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONSIDERABLY IF THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET CLUSTER IS CORRECT. THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND... CONSEQUENTLY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST.. WHICH IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. THE MOST LIKELY SITUATION IS THAT JOHN WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY... PROBABLY EMERGING IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER IT REEMERGES DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND WITH A DISSIPATION OVER COLD WATER BY 5 DAYS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO WOULD HAVE THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATE IN JUST A FEW DAYS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.8N 109.0W 95 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.6N 109.9W 75 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.7N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.6N 112.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.5N 113.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC