Hurricane JOHN

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HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOHN IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE
WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND PRONOUNCED BANDING
FEATURES.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON MISSION
EARLIER TODAY WERE 102 KT AT 700 MB... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 92 KT
AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER... AFTER THE RECON LEFT... JOHN FINISHED
ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AS INDICATED BY CABO SAN LUCAS
RADAR.  THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY RECOVERED A LITTLE FROM THE
TEMPORARY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT... AND THE WINDS WILL BE NUDGED DOWN
ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL THIS EVENING.  

THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION SEEN EARLIER HAS CONTINUED... NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 335/7.  GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE
NORTHEAST SINCE SIX HOURS AGO.  THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET ARE INDICATING
THAT JOHN WILL FIND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION.  THE MINORITY
SOLUTION SUGGESTS A LEFTWARD TURN AFTER INTERACTION WITH BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO
BE MOVED EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.  THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
FLOODING THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONSIDERABLY IF THE
GFS/GFDL/UKMET CLUSTER IS CORRECT. 
 
THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND... CONSEQUENTLY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST.. WHICH IS MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN USUAL.  THE MOST LIKELY SITUATION IS THAT JOHN WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY... PROBABLY EMERGING IN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER IT REEMERGES DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND
WITH A DISSIPATION OVER COLD WATER BY 5 DAYS.  AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO WOULD HAVE THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATE IN JUST A
FEW DAYS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 22.8N 109.0W    95 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.6N 109.9W    75 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.7N 111.2W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.6N 112.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 26.5N 113.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
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