ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOHN WHICH HAD DEGRADED EARLIER IN THE EVENING...HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ONCE AGAIN. AN EYE IS NOW DISCERNIBLE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON THE LOS CABOS RADAR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN CONTRACTING ON THE RADAR IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 KT FROM AFWA... 102 KT FROM SAB...TO 115 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 100 KT. AN UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF JOHN LATER THIS MORNING. JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OR WEST OF TRACK DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A LONGER TERM 12-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/11 KT AND THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY. DESPITE THE RECENT MORE WESTWARD TRENDS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AND MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW JOHN MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD IS ADJUSTED RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BOTH FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO JOHN REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD INITIATE GRADUAL WEAKENING. JOHN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS SSTS OF 23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.7N 108.8W 100 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.8N 110.1W 105 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W 100 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 24.8N 112.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 25.4N 114.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 26.3N 116.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 26.8N 119.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC