Hurricane ILEANA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 61   6(67)   1(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
ISLA CLARION   50  7   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
ISLA CLARION   64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 198N 1142W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 198N 1142W 50 83   8(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 198N 1142W 64 47  18(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 
 24 205N 1160W 34 29  60(89)   5(94)   X(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 24 205N 1160W 50  3  56(59)   7(66)   1(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 24 205N 1160W 64  X  32(32)  10(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
 36 211N 1173W 34  2  50(52)  24(76)   3(79)   1(80)   X(80)   1(81)
 36 211N 1173W 50  X  16(16)  25(41)   4(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 36 211N 1173W 64  X   5( 5)  16(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 48 215N 1182W 34  2  21(23)  32(55)   8(63)   4(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 48 215N 1182W 50  X   4( 4)  18(22)   7(29)   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 48 215N 1182W 64  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 
 72 222N 1200W 34  X   3( 3)  15(18)  10(28)  10(38)   1(39)   X(39)
 72 222N 1200W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 72 222N 1200W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 225N 1215W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   8(18)   2(20)   1(21)
 96 225N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 96 225N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 225N 1235W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
120 225N 1235W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
120 225N 1235W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    115    105      85      70      50      35      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
                                                                   
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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