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HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 15 64(79) 8(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 43(44) 8(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 12(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
ISLA CLARION 34 1 10(11) 35(46) 12(58) 5(63) 1(64) X(64)
ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 10(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 168N 1095W 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 168N 1095W 50 84 8(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
12 168N 1095W 64 33 18(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
24 182N 1116W 34 13 72(85) 8(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
24 182N 1116W 50 1 59(60) 12(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
24 182N 1116W 64 X 25(25) 13(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
36 193N 1136W 34 2 22(24) 50(74) 10(84) 3(87) X(87) X(87)
36 193N 1136W 50 X 5( 5) 42(47) 10(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59)
36 193N 1136W 64 X 1( 1) 21(22) 8(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32)
48 203N 1153W 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 30(64) 11(75) 1(76) X(76)
48 203N 1153W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 8(44) X(44) X(44)
48 203N 1153W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22)
72 216N 1174W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 24(48) 6(54) 1(55)
72 216N 1174W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 2(23) X(23)
72 216N 1174W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10)
96 230N 1190W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 8(31) 1(32)
96 230N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)
96 230N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
120 240N 1210W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16)
120 240N 1210W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
120 240N 1210W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75 85 95 95 80 60 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC