Tropical Depression TEN-E

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E                                           
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
1800 UTC MON AUG 21 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  38(55)   2(57)   1(58)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   1(23)   X(23)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  10(32)   1(33)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 133N 1037W 34 32  16(48)   X(48)   X(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 12 133N 1037W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 12 133N 1037W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 143N 1056W 34  1  41(42)  12(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 24 143N 1056W 50  X   8( 8)   6(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 24 143N 1056W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 155N 1075W 34  X   6( 6)  40(46)  13(59)   3(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 36 155N 1075W 50  X   X( X)  13(13)   8(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 36 155N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 48 170N 1095W 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  34(45)  17(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 48 170N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   9(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 48 170N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 72 200N 1135W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)  13(50)   1(51)
 72 200N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   6(18)   1(19)
 72 200N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 220N 1165W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  22(31)   3(34)
 96 220N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)
 96 220N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 240N 1200W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
120 240N 1200W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
120 240N 1200W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     45      55      65      75      75      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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