ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006 AS DEPICTED BY CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...ILEANA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. ILEANA IS CONTINUING ITS SPINNING DOWN PROCESS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES AND DATA T-NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND SINCE ILEANA IS MOVING OVER COOL 24 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 295/5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BENDING THE TRACK WESTWARD AS ILEANA BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 23.2N 119.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 23.5N 120.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 23.6N 122.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/1200Z 23.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC