ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006 AN EYE WAS STILL BARELY APPARENT AT 00Z...AND DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS WERE STILL 4.0 WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 65 KT. SINCE THEN...HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...SO ILEANA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY. SSTS BENEATH THE SYSTEM ARE NEAR 25 CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS 310/6. A TURN TO THE LEFT OR WEST IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 22.3N 117.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 22.7N 118.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 119.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 23.2N 122.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC