ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006 ILEANA IS RETAINING GOOD STRUCTURE WITH A 20 NM WIDE EYE OBSERVED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS TOPS AROUND THE CENTER CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AND DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 70 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THIS AVERAGE IS TYPICALLY USED DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE WHEN CI NUMBERS ARE CONSTRAINED BY DVORAK RULES. WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST...ILEANA MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENTRAINS DRY STABLE AIR. IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/4 KT. THE GFS WHICH INITIALIZED THE HURRICANE FAR TOO WEAK....SEEMS UNREASONABLE WITH ITS ALMOST IMMEDIATE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A WESTWARD BEND LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE 12 FT SEA RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON EARLIER OBSERVATIONS FROM TWO SHIPS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 21.6N 116.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 21.9N 117.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 22.1N 118.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 22.2N 119.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 22.2N 120.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.5N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC