ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT THU AUG 24 2006 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. CIMSS ADT 6-HOURLY AVERAGED ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER...CLOSE TO 100 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONCE AGAIN WITH DRY AIR ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ILEANA IS ON THE VERGE OF CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WHICH COUPLED WITH THE WEAKINING NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STEADY WEAKENING MAY BE CLOSE AT HAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED AT 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH ILEANA RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE IT REMAINS A DEEP SYSTEM AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU/GUNA THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST WAS INTRODUCED WHICH REFLECTS THE SOUTHWARD TRENDS OF THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM. THE 34-KT WIND AND 12 FOOT SEA RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON 0000 UTC OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS DILE AND A8HR7. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 21.2N 116.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 21.8N 116.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 22.3N 117.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 22.6N 118.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 22.8N 120.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 122.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/0000Z 22.0N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER COBB/KNABB NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC