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Hurricane ILEANA (Text)

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HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
200 PM PDT THU AUG 24 2006
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT ILEANA HAS MADE A BIT OF A
COMEBACK TODAY...AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF CI AND T
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AODT NUMBERS THAT HAVE INCREASED DUE
TO THE IMPROVED SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HELD A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS DUE TO THE...PRESUMABLY TEMPORARY ...INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. ILEANA SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WITH DISSIPATION SOON TO FOLLOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW AND IS NOW 300/7. THE
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH ILEANA FEELING THE
EFFECTS OF THE BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE IT REMAINS A DEEP
SYSTEM AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU...THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONU FOR DAY 2. BY
DAY 3 A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST WAS INTRODUCED...SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REFLECTING THE SOUTHWARD TRENDS OF THE
CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1351 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
AND A 1800 UTC OBSERVATION OF 40 KT FROM SHIP A8HR7 NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 20.8N 115.5W    85 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.4N 116.5W    80 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 22.1N 117.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 22.6N 119.6W    35 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 22.7N 121.4W    25 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
 
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