ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 24 2006 HURRICANE ILEANA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW 95 KT. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED. 0312Z 85 GHZ SSM/I MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF AN OUTER EYEWALL AS PART OF AN POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT ELENA TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...AND ALL INTENSITY AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ILEANA'S FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED...INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9. OUR TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT, BUT SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN DEFERENCE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL, UKMO, NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE WIND RADII REMAIN THE SAME GIVEN THE LACK OF NEW OBSERVATIONS AND THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.9N 114.2W 95 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 21.3N 116.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 21.8N 117.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 22.2N 118.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 120.1W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC