Hurricane HECTOR

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006               
1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 183N 1315W 34 93   3(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 183N 1315W 50 73   9(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 12 183N 1315W 64 38  10(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
 24 192N 1330W 34 41  37(78)   4(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 24 192N 1330W 50  4  35(39)   5(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 24 192N 1330W 64  X  13(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 36 199N 1343W 34  7  31(38)  14(52)   3(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 36 199N 1343W 50  X   7( 7)  11(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 36 199N 1343W 64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 205N 1355W 34  4  11(15)  11(26)   5(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 48 205N 1355W 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 205N 1355W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 210N 1385W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 210N 1385W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 210N 1385W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 215N 1425W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 96 215N 1425W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 215N 1425W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     75     65      50      35      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN