ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006 AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0336Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND 0251Z 37 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR IS FINALLY BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED AND...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA... THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...PRESUMABLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY. IN FACT...THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS CLOSE TO 40 KT. HOWEVER NOW THAT HECTOR'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DECOUPLED...IT HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR. THE 12-H TRACK FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION OF 285/4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THEN CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD AND FASTER MOTION IN CONSIDERATION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 22.4N 136.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 22.6N 137.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 22.9N 139.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/1800Z 23.1N 141.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0600Z 23.3N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC