Tropical Storm HECTOR

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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
 
A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT HECTOR WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WITH SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40 KT VECTORS...AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS. 
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS VERY LIMITED CONVECTION AND HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23C WATERS.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS
STRONG AND NOT FORECAST TO ABATE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6.  HECTOR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN MAINTAINING
ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO DEFLECT THE MOTION TO
THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DECAY...A LEFTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE...WITH MOST OF THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWING A MORE ABRUPT WESTWARD TURN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 22.3N 135.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 22.8N 136.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 23.3N 137.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 24.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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