Tropical Storm HECTOR

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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
 
CONVECTION THAT HAD EARLIER BEEN CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER HAS BENN SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE SOUTH...MAKING LOCATION
AND MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  THE LOCATION AND STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
WAS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER-LEVEL SATELLITE WIND RETRIEVALS.  WHILE SOME CONVECTION
REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE.  WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...TROPICAL
STORM HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMAND LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOW
310/6 KT...AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT
SLOWER AND MORE TO THE LEFT AS HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS A REMNANT LOW.

THE 12-FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT RADII WERE BASED ON THE LATEST
OUTPUT FROM THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL WHICH VERIFIED WELL WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF HECTOR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 21.2N 135.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 21.8N 136.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N 136.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.6N 137.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 23.0N 139.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 23.6N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO
 
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