Tropical Storm HECTOR

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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. A RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY
DUE TO COLD WATER... HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. ALL SIGNS POINT TO
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING SOMETIME TOMORROW... AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. 

HECTOR IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT AT 9
KT... AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN ABOUT THIS FASHION FOR A DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER A LEFT TURN IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING MUCH
WEAKER AND BECOMING STEERED BY ONLY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... STILL
DISCOUNTING THE MODELS THAT KEEP HECTOR AS A POWERFUL SYSTEM DURING
THE PERIOD... AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW WHICH OFTEN 
HANDLES THESE TYPES OF WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS
EFFECTIVELY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 20.4N 134.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 21.1N 135.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.9N 136.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
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