ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006 AN ILL-DEFINED EYE WAS DETECTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES UP THROUGH 0600 UTC BUT IT IS GONE NOW...PERHAPS FOR GOOD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...HOWEVER BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT. HECTOR IS NOW OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS TROUGH SHOULD IMPART INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ON HECTOR. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION NOT LONG THEREAFTER. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 9 KT AS HECTOR NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW....AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL BEND TO THE LEFT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HECTOR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 19.4N 132.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 133.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 135.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 136.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC