Hurricane HECTOR

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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
 
HECTOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND THE EYE IS
NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN
FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS NOTED BY THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING
SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO
AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS HECTOR TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATES THE
SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES
A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS
STORM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 19.0N 132.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.7N 133.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 134.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 21.2N 135.9W    35 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.7N 137.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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