Hurricane HECTOR

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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED
OVERNIGHT WITH A LOSS OF ANY EYE FEATURE.  AN AQUA PASS AT 1030 UTC
SHOWS THE EYEWALL OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SOME
INDICATION FROM THE LOW CLOUD LINES THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION
COULD BE A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  T-NUMBERS
FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED
CONSERVATIVELY TO 85 KT.  HECTOR HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH LONGER
THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LONGER TRACK OVER WARMER WATER
AND LESS SHEAR THAN FORECAST.  A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE
LATER TODAY AS SSTS COOL BELOW 26C AND SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  THE
WEAKENING COULD BE A LOT FASTER TOMORROW AS SSTS DROP BELOW 24C AND
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE
ABOVE SHIPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIAGNOSING TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE
NEAR-TERM REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...290/10... AND
THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE MOVING
A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN RECENTLY SEEN.  MOST OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET
REMAIN THE NORTH/SOUTH OUTLIERS.. THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD TRACK HAS
WORKED OUT BETTER AS OF LATE.  AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS A LEFTWARD
TURN IS FORESEEN DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SHALLOW NATURE.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN BETWEEN
THE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.7N 130.1W    85 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.2N 133.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.9N 134.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N 138.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
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