ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006 THE EYE OF HECTOR HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WAS ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...WITH TOPS TO -80C SEEN EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM TAFB... AND REMAIN 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE LAST PACKAGE. HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS N OF 20N BETWEEN 125-145W DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT TIME. THE GFDN AND LBAR CALL FOR HECTOR TO TURN NORTHWARD AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE STORM REMAINS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HECTOR WILL HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY 72 HR FOR LOW-LEVEL STEERING TO BECOME PREDOMINANT...WITH THE CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE NOGAPS AND THE GFDL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HECTOR SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM WITHIN 12 HR...AND MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE FASTER WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 72 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST HECTOR TO HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY 120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR DISSIPATION BY THAT TIME. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.4N 129.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 132.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 19.6N 133.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 20.3N 135.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 137.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC