ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006 AN EYE HAS PERIODICALLY BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KT. A 1446Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT ABOUT 125 NM AT MOST IN THE NW QUADRANT AND TO 75 NM AT MOST IN THE SW QUADRANT...WHICH IS SMALLER THAN OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. CURRENT MOTION OF HECTOR CONTINUES AT A HEADING OF 290 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KT. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME...IT SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THAT WILL TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AFTER ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD ON TO TOO STRONG AND TOO LARGE A VORTEX FOR TOO LONG. HECTOR IS GOING TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND STABLE AIR WHICH SHOULD BEGIN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN ABOUT A DAY. HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ANALYZED IN THE SHIPS MODEL TOO HIGH DUE TO ADJACENT STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SUGGESTS VERTICAL SHEAR CLOSER TO 5 TO 10 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND ABOVE THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THREE DAYS. DISSIPATION IS DELAYED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND LOWER SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.7N 126.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 128.6W 80 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 131.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 138.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC