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Hurricane HECTOR (Text)

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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006
 
THE EYE OF HECTOR HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AGAIN THIS MORNING. 
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED AT THE SAME
TIME.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...
AND THAT IS NOW THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE HURRICANE CURRENTLY HAS
GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 285-290 DEGREES AT 11-12 KT. 
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST
TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HECTOR REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AS HECTOR APPROACHES A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. 
AFTER 96 HR...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS HECTOR WEAKENS
AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE
A LEFT OUTLIER CALLING FOR A WESTERLY MOTION... WHILE THE GFS IS
STILL ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE FORECAST
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
HECTOR IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27C...AND THE
WATER GETS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 12 HR...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO.  AFTER
THAT...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL.  ONE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE IS A FASTER WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION AFTER 48
HR...AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AS HECTOR MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON
QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0200Z...WHICH SHOWED HECTOR WAS SOMEWHAT LARGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 15.8N 124.4W    90 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 18.3N 129.7W    75 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N 131.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N 133.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 136.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     23/0600Z 23.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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