ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006 THE EYE OF HECTOR BECAME CLOUD FILLED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THIS TIME... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 85 KT...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD BE REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY SOON. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING THE HURRICANE TO ABOVE 90 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHILE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK HECTOR AT 82 AND 81 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF WHY HECTOR SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN FURTHER...THE FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 90 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 285/11. HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.4N 123.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.9N 124.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 126.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.6N 128.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.4N 130.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 132.8W 50 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 135.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC