ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAVING FORMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT ARE UNANIMOUSLY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 KT. ADDITIONALLY...AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM AN OVERPASS AROUND 1400 UTC WAS 76 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE GIVEN THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF AN EYE AND THE OVERALL IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS A LITTLE MUDDIED BY THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KT...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE 83 KT...AND THE GFDL 91 KT. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT-TERM...THERE ARE SEEMINGLY NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WHICH MIGHT ARREST THE CURRENT UPWARD TREND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND LARGE AREA OF DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF HECTOR. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR...IT IS ASSUMED THE CYCLONE WILL BE UNAFFECTED BY THIS DRY AIR. INDEED...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SHEAR AXIS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT IS OBLITERATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM HECTOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPECTRUM AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL...SHOWING HECTOR BECOMING A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 2...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS HECTOR MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS... ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11. HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH BUT IS OTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 122.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 123.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 125.7W 90 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.0N 127.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.9N 129.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 132.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC