ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006 INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NOW CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/9...ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD JOG MAY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HECTOR IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 25N130W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR 72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N W OF 125W. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP HECTOR MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKELY THEREAFTER. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF HECTOR AND THUS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION...LYING ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE CLUSTER. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HECTOR REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND IT IS APPROACHING AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT EXISTS BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND AND 16N134W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS DUAL-HIGH PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A SINGLE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR OR OVER HECTOR IN 24-48 HR...WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE SHEAR. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME HECTOR SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 75 KT IN 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE GFDL FOR THE FIRST 24 HR...WITH HECTOR FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. IT THEN FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 72-96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID/ UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HECTOR COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.4N 127.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC