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Tropical Storm HECTOR

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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006

THE INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT HECTOR WENT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
DAY APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A TEMPORARY HIATUS.  CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOW BECOME A CONSENSUS 3.5 FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES AND JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT AN INTENSITY OF 55
KT.

HECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD JOG
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9...BUT THIS
COULD BE PART OF A SERIES OF WOBBLES AS THE CONVECTION TRIES TO
ORGANIZE.  NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY NUDGED FARTHER NORTH
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
MOTION...BUT THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND
THAT. THIS TRACK IS ALSO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
ORDER TO PLACE LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE HAD A SOUTHWARD BIAS SO FAR.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BECOME MARGINAL AT 48 HOURS AND THE STORM IS ALREADY MOVING INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE
FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND ONLY STRENGTHENS HECTOR TO 75 KT BY 36 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE THEIR TOLL WITH HECTOR LIKELY TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 14.3N 118.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 15.4N 121.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 16.2N 123.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 125.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N 134.5W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
 
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