ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006 VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT...BUT HECTOR COULD EASILY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/9. HECTOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS...CONTINUING ON WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 72 HOURS...CAUSING HECTOR TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS REMAIN THE OUTLIERS...WITH THE UKMET MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5...AND NOGAPS INDICATING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE. WIND RADII ARE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1357Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.8N 117.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.1N 119.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 120.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 122.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 124.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC