ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT T.D. NINE-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. A RECENT TRMM PASS INDICATED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...IMPLYING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESTRICT STRENGTHENING GIVEN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL RUNS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY BETWEEN 125W AND 135W WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION SAVE THE UKMET WHICH MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS RESULTING IN ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 13.3N 115.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.5N 117.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.0N 119.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.7N 121.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.8N 123.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.8N 127.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 22.0N 134.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC