ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006 CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH AROUND GILMA AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 1.5 AND 1.0 RESPECTIVELY...AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 24 KT FROM A 0149 UTC HI-RES QUIKSCAT PASS JUSTIFY DECREASING THE INTENSITY TO 25 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER GILMA AND THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INTO AN EVEN DRIER ENVIRONMENT...MAKING THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY RE-STRENGTHENING SLIM. GILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...AND PERSIST FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 285/5...AND GILMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK PRIOR TO DISSIPATION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 15.4N 108.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 110.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/AVILA NNNN
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