ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 GILMA LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER ON THE EAST SIDE AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT BALANCED BY WARM SSTS. THEREAFTER...COOLING SSTS SHOULD FINISH OFF WHAT'S LEFT OF THE CYCLONE. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT GILMA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.. CURRENTLY 295/7...DUE TO WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. SYNOPTIC REASONING IS THE SAME AS BEFORE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE FORECAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW GILMA TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO WITH SOME ACCELERATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS... AND FOLLOWS BAM SHALLOW CLOSELY AFTER 2 DAYS ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE'S DEMISE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 15.4N 107.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 15.8N 108.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 16.6N 110.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.6N 111.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 117.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC