ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE CENTER OF GILMA DURING THE DAY...WHICH WAS ENOUGH TO BRING THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB UP TO 35 KT AT 18Z. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED AS THE BURST HAS WEAKENED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...AND GILMA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/5. GILMA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW SOUTHEAST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW GILMA TO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION THAT LOOKS SUSPECT...WHILE THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL FOR THE FIRST 72 HR AND THEN FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE BAM MODELS THEREAFTER. ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT GILMA IS ENCOUNTERING 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HR BEFORE DECREASING. BY THAT TIME...GILMA SHOULD BE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE GILMA TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 72 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 15.0N 107.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 15.4N 108.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 16.9N 110.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 17.6N 112.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC