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Tropical Storm GILMA

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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006
 
AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS AND EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INCREASE
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...35 KT.  GILMA SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA
OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED EASTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS...PROVIDING FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  AFTERWORDS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SSTS AFTER DAY 3.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
OR DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR IN 72 HOURS OR LESS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE BAMM AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE TURN GILMA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WHICH FORMS THE BASIS OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   
THE GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS THE SYSTEM DRIFTING WITHIN THE
WEAKNESS AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE GFDL...AND THE GFS BETA ADVECTION MEDIUM
LAYER MODEL.


 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 13.8N 105.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 14.4N 106.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 15.1N 107.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 15.7N 110.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.6N 114.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N 119.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
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